Sunday, September 28, 2008

Debate 1: Not the End of the World

One of my favorite political sites, Race42008, has always had amazing insight into the 2008 election. Yet, after this first debate -- they have proclaimed that McCain's path to the White House has become infinitely harder, if not impossible. I'm here to disagree.

First things first, the debate was barely viewed. How barely? More people watched the Bush-Kerry debates than McCain-Obama. In fact, this debate was more comparable to the Bush-Gore or Dole-Clinton debates, which were not earth changing debates. In fact, they didn't change a thing. Bush-Gore made Bush come across as more likable, but only mildly. Dole-Clinton changed nothing, Dole was still not going to beat Slick Willy, sadly. Bush-Kerry didn't change a thing either because when one candidate is running against Mr. Divisive and not as a defined quantity, he was destined to nto have anything game changing. This is no different. The debate was not watched by enough people to have the impact it could have had if the amount of people expected had watched it. That didn't happen.

Secondly, the debate did not end in a decisive victory for Obama. The debate wasn't a big win, it was a tie and when the media is calling McCain the underdog, that's not a bad place to be in. McCain is the underdog and him holding his own or beating Mr. Fluff is a good thing. Obama did exactly what he needed to do -- like his pants off and come across as more moderate than he really was. McCain came across as strong on everything he needed to come across with, passionate, and there were ample quotes to pull from Obama which can be later used against him. His sheer number of, "I agree with John McCain" comments make it harder for Obama to be taken seriously as a man with new ideas. The fact that Henry Kissinger is already calling out Obama for mischaracterizing him, is telling. Obama didn't decisively win, he tied at best and lost, to be practical about it.

Finally, there are 2 more debates plus a VP debate remaining. This coming week, Mr. Foot-in-Mouth will be battling against our less than experienced Governor. With enough preparation in a very defined debate, Palin can do fine. What will happen if Biden acts as agressive as I know he can be? Biden will come across as overly confrontational against his female competition, just as Lazio did against Clinton in 2000. He'll look like he's actively picking on the female contender and it will hurt him. Palin can learn the talking points easily and with a defined debate, she'll be fine. There won't be the jumping down of each other's throats we saw in McCain-Obama Round 1. Also, I reiterate that there are 2 more debates. If McCain can keep up this type of a showing, he'll rock the debates. Keeping a string of ties against Obama will be just fine, especially if he can come across as more reasonable in his plain-spoken conservatism then he can do well in the next debates.

This election is Obama's to lose and if he can be called out on his lies and exposed for his extreme views, McCain can beat him. McCain personally has 2 more chances which may not be viewed by everyone as well. That could also be a boon for McCain. I don't think the election is over just yet. It's not over until November. McCain can still win this election and become the President he should have been in 2001.

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