Friday, January 2, 2009

2009 Predictions

In response to a predictions thread from Race42012, I decided to come up with my own. Here they are -

Domestic:
Unemployment will top 8.5% by the end of the year.

Paterson will appoint a caretaker Senator in former Governor Mario Cuomo to avoid the public/private battle between Cuomo and Kennedy. The caretaker Senator will unexpectedly announce that they will run for reelection for 2010, prompting a primary challenge from Caroline Kennedy.

Gingrich will begin to openly flirt with a bid for the Presidency in 2012, including submitting the paperwork to form an exploratory committee by years end.

Ken Blackwell edges out Mike Duncan to become Republican party chairman after first round third and fifth choices (Steele and Saltsman) throw their support solidly behind Blackwell. Steele returns to Maryland and begins preparation for 2010, by years end he will announce for Governor.

The newspaper industry asks for a bailout as numbers continue to dwindle as more people get their news from the internet with Rupert Murdoch and the NY Times editorial board appearing before a Congressional committee.

Wild Prediction: The Baltimore Ravens will battle their way through the post-season with rookie quarterback Joe Flacco, surprising everyone, and take on the Giants in a close Superbowl repeat matchup.

Chrysler will begin to falter and instead of an equal merger, will be purchased by Ford. GMC will discontinue a few brands and cut corners, but will still falter despite the bailout.

A currently undetermined and unexpected industry will ask for a bailout as well.

As impeachment continues to loom, Rod Blagojevich will resign on his own terms in February with the condition that Burris is accepted into the Senate. Quietly at years end, Obama will pardon Blagojevich. Reid will continue as Majority Leader through 2009.

Heath Ledger will win Best Supporting Actor posthumously, his father and ex-wife will fight over who gets to accept the award.

Foreign Policy:
A vote of no confidence will be held in the Conservative government in Canada and a new election will be held. Conservatives will win by larger margins and capture a majority government.

Obama will continue Bush's policies in Iraq.

Cameron will become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom with a majority Conservative government.

Israel will perform surgical strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities after the UN fails to act. Obama will try to push for a diplomatic end calling for multi-party talks, Israel will prefer action. Full scale war will be looming by years end.

Medvedev will take overt steps to minimize Putin's power and continue to sabre rattle. By years end, two scale war with Ukraine and Georgia on the one side and Russia on the other will be looming. Obama will try to remain neutral and call for peace talks.

Gates will resign as Secretary of Defense towards the middle of the year in opposition to Obama's failed policies involving Iran and Russia. Gates will be given gobs of money to write a memoir entitled, "The Hopeful Presidents." The book will discuss the flaws in foreign policy views of both Obama and Bush in one felt swoop. Gates will be a surprising vote getter at CPAC's Presidential Preference Poll.

Summary: Obama's approval rating will drop to about 48-50% by years end. Economy will continue to stagnate in the US and abroad. Iran, Georgia, and Ukraine will be the foreign policy items of note. It will be in the mid-fifties by June. Frontrunners for the GOP nomination in 2012 by years end will include Gingrich, Palin, Romney, and Gates.

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